Author Archive
Slovakia: NBS keeps rates unchanged
As expected the Slovak central bank today kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25%. It is now (nearly 100%) clear that Slovakia will join the euro area from January 2009, which means that the Slovak central bank (NBS) will have to bring interest rates down to the level of the ECB at 4.00%. The [...]
Hungary: MNB maintains hawkish stance
The Hungarian central bank today hiked its key policy rate by another 25bp to 8.50%. This was both the consensus expectation and our own. If anybody deserves a prize for being a cautious central banker in CEE it must be the Hungarian central bank governor Andras Simor. Despite continued very weak domestic demand and a [...]
Russia: The central bank raises reserve requirements further
This morning the Russian central bank (CBR) has announced today that from July 1 it will raise its compulsory reserve requirements for commercial banks to 5.0% from 4.5% for retail deposits in roubles, to 7.0% from 5.5% for banks’ liabilities to non-resident banks and to 5.5% from 5.0% for other bank liabilities. The CBR cited [...]
Minutes of FOMC Meeting, April 30th 2008
• The minutes showed that expectations for 2008 had deteriorated since the previous meeting. Participants lowered their forecast for GDP growth in 2008 while revising up sharply their outlook for inflation • FOMC members expected a recovery in 2009, but admitted that downside risks to the outlook were significant. Risks to growth were linked to [...]
Japan: BoJ leaves interest rate unchanged
As widely expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its leading interest O/N target rate unchanged at 0.5% in a unani-mous decision. In addition, BoJ left its view of the economy broadly unchanged in the Monthly Economic Report published in connection with todays monetary meeting (see page 2). Overall there have been no major changes in [...]
Turkey: Did TCMB finally turn hawkish?
The Turkish central bank (TCMB) has announced that it has raised its key policy rate by 50bp to 15.75% - in line with the consensus expectation, but less than our expectation of 100bp. The TCMB has finally realised the need for a tighter monetary stance following its aggressive easing during H2 07, where it lowered [...]
China: Another 50bp hike in bank reserve requirement to 16.5%
The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) today hiked the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) for commercial banks by 50 bp to 16.5% (see chart 1 below). This move follows the release of reports earlier today showing an increase in inflation, see our Flash Comment - China: Inflation accelerated slightly in April and no signs as yet [...]
After the ECB meeting: Hawks spread wings
European Central Bank did not change interest rates, and this is hardly surprising. There must be, however, many disappointed faces (including the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi) who had hoped for at least a vague sign of the future monetary easing. Nothing of that kind. President Trichet once again pointed to the threat of persistent [...]
ECB: Preview of today’s meeting
The story is very much the same this month, and we don’t expect a big change in the tone from ECB. The market impact should therefore be limited. On the one hand inflation risks are intensifying as oil prices keeps rising. But on the other, downside growth risks are also strengthening and actual data have [...]
U.S. Forex Market Commentary
EURO The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5700 figure and was capped around the $1.5815 level. The common currency gave back much of the gains it had notched over the past three trading days. A retreat in NYMEX July crude oil futures back to [...]
